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On the Grains
Grains are weak in overnight trade wheat down double digits on some welcome rain in the parched western half of southern Plains states. There is little doubt this afternoon’s crop progress report will show the lead in planting progress for corn and beans with “normal” is gone if not a little behind. But models are conflicted with one suggesting a drier pattern developing by midweek and into the following week that will allow planting to pick up again while another sees the wet pattern less widespread but still problematic from Iowa eastward well into mid-month.
What hasn’t changed over the weekend is the increasingly grim flooding in southern Brazil that’s caught half their crop (and `10% of Brazil’s total crop) unharvested and much of it in standing water. We’ve got the May WASDE due Friday. USDA’s Brazilian crop estimates for both corn and beans have already been regarded as far too high for months and now another 2-5 million tonnes may be lost altogether according to Brazilian sources.

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