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On the Grains
Grain markets are steady-to-mixed in overnight trade. Uncertainty over the acreage swings we’ll see between corn and soybeans and how they vary from those put out in USDA’s Outlook Forum last month has both bulls and bears in a bit of stalemate awaiting the next hints from private surveys that have been underway.
 
The Allendale survey projecting more corn acres and fewer bean acres than USDA’s Forum numbers has been dialed in. Market impact was somewhat muted by the reality of continued strong corn export inspections and firm cash basis while the support for soybeans offset by the reality of soft exports amidst surging shipments and price advantage out of South America. Now the SBO rally is looking toppy as Malaysian palm oil production starts rising seasonally about now.
 
Wheat remains under constant pressure from fierce export price competition and improving winter wheat condition ratings, but expanding attacks by Russia on Ukraine’s port of Odesa while Ukraine’s successful attacks on Russian oil facilities and naval operations even include a threat to Russia’s own Black Sea grain ports. Further, Russia’s wheat prices actually moved higher last week for the first time since January and this latest cold snap in the Plains puts continued improvement in wheat ratings in question.
 

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