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On the Grains Grains are mixed in very low volume overnight trade as of 6 AM. Soybeans are weakest, with no follow through buying following yesterday’s pop higher on Brazil’s CONAB coming out with much lower crop estimates than USDA for both beans and corn. They’re likely to go lower still and we explain why in this week’s Brazilian operations update below. It’s noteworthy that national average soybean basis gained another penny despite the jump in futures showing remaining beans in tight hands as fieldwork begins. In other news, Ukraine’s Grain Traders Union says the combination of low prices, high costs amidst ongoing war will likely cut that country’s total grain and oilseed production by 6.5 MMT in 2024. That’s only about 8% and considerably more optimistic than last month’s warning by Ukraine’s Ag Ministry that production would likely fall 15% or more. Even that much decline will have an amplified impact on Ukraine’s exports, however. The Union predicts corn exports will decline more than 6 million tonnes (over 20%) and wheat exports by 2 MMT (10%). Wheat has attempted to rally multiple times but keeps getting pushed back down by relentless selling by Russia at whatever discount it takes…

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