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On the Grains Grains are slightly weaker in overnight trade as of 6am after Friday’s surprising firmness on a mostly yawner WASDE. The only big surprise relative to trade expectations was USDA cutting Brazil’s soybean crop by only 1 million tonnes to 155 MMT with the trade expecting a cut four times that big. Even Brazil’s own CONAB is already down to 149.4 and several private forecasters (ourselves included) at 145 million.   Yet soybeans had the strongest close on Friday as traders concluded USDA is being unreasonably “conservative” until harvest is closer to completion and paid more attention to some “sleeper” elements in the WASDE regarding China. Recall in January they blindsided the soybean market by boosting last year’s Brazilian ending stocks nearly 2 MMT? On Friday they revisited last year’s data again, only this time it was for China and price friendly. They boosted China’s 2022-23 soybean imports 3.65 MMT and also boosted their estimate for this year’s imports by 3 MMT.   Weakness overnight may stem in part from the Commitments of Traders report that came out after the close. It showed that through last Tuesday, the funds had continued to sell grains aggressively with the exception…

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