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On the Grains
Grains are weak again in overnight trade, still reeling from the whipsaw action we saw yesterday from conflicting Brazilian crop estimates between USDA and its Brazilian counterpart CONAB. The day started out with lousy weekly export sales in beans, coming in below the low end of trade expectations. Then CONAB came out with its Brazilian crop estimate down sharply to 149.4 million tonnes vs. trade expectations for USDA at 152.5 against 157 in January. So prices rose accordingly.
Then USDA comes out and KO’s the beans with US ending stocks up 35 million bu. at 315 million bu., which beat the high end of trade expectations. Worse yet, they came down only a million tonnes for the Brazilian crop at 156 and nearly mocking CONAB’s number. Prices tanked. However, by end of day, beans managed to close on the plus side, suggesting that on balance, traders were giving CONAB the nod as the more credible.

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