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After 4 years of drought the odds favor some kind of reprieve even if just for a year. Current conditions are similar to the 1930’s drought which lasted a decade from start to finish but with 1932-1936 seen as the most intense period of drought and 1936 cited as the peak year of that drought period. I will believe that we have seen the peak year of this 89-year drought cycle when ISU climatologist Elwynn Taylor says so. His peak year pick, 89 years from 1936, is 2025.   The corn yield is poised to leap above the trendline if the weather is good. With a plus-trendline yield, unless there is a significant reduction in corn acres, we could see the corn carryover surge past 3 bln bushel. That is $3 not $4 corn. Note that some in Washington are trying to make it a choice between crop insurance subsidies and safety net election of PLC or ARC…either or. Take crop insurance or the safety net…one or the other. First off, can this Congress actually do a new farm bill? There is no reason to believe that they could. We need to keep crop insurance and increase reference prices in…

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