Skip to main content

I do not have a great deal of confidence that climatologists can forecast spring planting conditions other than a best guess. We are in a transition from El Nino that will swing to La Nina conditions sometime this year. Models differ on how quickly that transition will occur but not on the destination. The speed of the demise of the El Nino to La Nina will have an impact on 2024 crop conditions but so will other things. Later arrival of La Nina should help corn production at the eventual expense of soybean yields.   2023 growing conditions did not conform ideally to El Nino expectations. El Ninos typically produce trendline yields 70% of the time according to ISU climatologist Elwynn Taylor. The 2023 El Nino was an anomaly as while the corn yield was a record, it fell short of trend. Analog El Nino winters have forecast conditions that do not differ greatly from what is being experienced this winter. The South and SE are typically wet in El Nino winters and they are. They should be seeing relief from drought in the Delta region and the Mississippi river level will recover to normal soon. That could benefit the…

This content is for members only.
Log In Register

Sign Up For The Commstock Report

Sign Up Now to Improve Your Marketing and Protect Your Profits

Subscribe

Already a Subscriber?
Sign In