11/15/2023 Mounting Evidence Bulls Getting “Second Wind” in Tug of War with Bears

On the Grains: Grains continued to firm in overnight trade thus far. The weather problems in Brazil continue to worsen and are detailed in our weekly Brazilian operations update below. While the focus is on the threat to their soybean production, we explain why it’s now threatening corn production as well. Even wheat is firm overnight on improving basis and news yesterday the Indian government would continue its ban on wheat and rice exports “indefinitely” to curb domestic prices that remain stubbornly high despite rapid drawdown of government reserves. Outside markets were the driving force turning markets higher yesterday after opening under pressure from the night before. The U.S. inflation rate for October came in at 3.2%, a 2-year low that was down from 3.7% in September and 8.1% a year ago. It sparked a strong rally in the stock market because it strengthened confidence the Fed would find no need to further raise rates and they might even be able to start trimming rates as early as mid-2024. More importantly for grains, the news led to a sharp downturn in the dollar raising hopes for more competitive export pricing.  The Dollar Index chart now shows clear topping action, a…