11/13/2023 As Harvest Enters Final Days, So Is the Case for Continued Spec Selling

On the Grains:
Grains are mixed so far in overnight trade, with beans firm, corn steady and wheat lower. Beans are getting support from trade realization that even after last week’s slight increase the U.S. yield and ending stocks, they still project to 8-year lows relative to usage. Further, Brazil’s dual weather woes have only continued through the weekend, with temps too hot and too dry over most of the north and unrelenting rains still delaying planting in the south.
 
On top of that, China bought over 2.2 million tonnes of U.S. beans late last week that will show up in this week’s export sales report. That comes on the heels of last week’s WASDE pushing China’s crush up by a million tonnes and lowering their ending stocks 3.5 million.
 
From a chart perspective, the monthly soybean chart shows the most promise for a strong rebound.  It shows prices seem to have bottomed right at key support at last spring’s lows and the lower Bollinger band and in the oversold zone on the Stochastics oscillator to boot.