09/15/2023 Grains Mixed as Bulls and Bears at a Bit of Stalemate

FALL FERTILIZER RECCO DAY 2: The months of downtrending fertilizer prices appear to have bottomed out. Per Thursday’s Weekly Retail Fertilizer Update we’re recommending you price fall fertilizer needs now if you haven’t already. SOYBEAN RECCO UPDATE DAY 3: The bearish reaction to Tuesday’s WASDE was overdone and expect further declines in yield and ending stocks. That’s why we advised lifting hedges the next day. On the Grains: Grains are steady to mixed in low volume overnight trade as we go to press. There’s almost a sense of “stalemate” between elements of trading who see impending seasonal harvest pressure favoring patience with short positions and those in our camp who expect early yield results to prove short of expectations and short bought commercials welcoming and readily absorbing new crop deliveries. I’m monitoring cash basis as a good gauge of which view prevails and so far, it’s inconclusive. On a national average, cash basis slipped but a penny in corn, wheat and soybeans yesterday. The strong energy market is supportive to demand for both biodiesel and ethanol. Crude oil has moved above $90/barrel for the first time since last November. A growing consensus sees strength persisting as intentional supply reductions from OPEC+ are…