09/07/2023 Grain Rally Stalls on Sketchy News, Awaiting Sept. 12 WASDE

On the Grains: Grains are soft in overnight trade after a surprisingly short-lived pop following greater than expected decline in crop condition ratings released on Tuesday. The irony is that concern about “harvest pressure” starting early this year is holding buyers in check when the reason for early harvest is a crop stress that brought the growing season to an early end. It certainly isn’t from any reports of “better than expected” early yields. To the contrary, what few anecdotal reports on yield that we’re hearing are consistently under what random “field checks” would have suggested. To the contrary, another private analytical firm’s annual farmer survey was in sync with what the Pro Farmer Tour found, putting their own corn yield estimate at 171.5 bpa compared to USDA’s August estimate of 175.1 and their soybean yield at 49.6 compared to USDA’s 50.9 bpa. Also tempering support for soybeans are reports from Brazil’s CONAB yesterday that even though their crop estimate remains at 154.6 MMT and slightly below USDA’s 156 MMT estimate, they’re raising their export estimate by 1.3 MMT to 96.9 MMT. Even that’s questionable as “bearish”, however, because it’s still below USDA’s existing estimate of their exports at 97.5…