08/30/2023 Grains Firming Up Again as Both Weather and War Heat Up

UPDATE ON SOYBEAN RECCO DAY 3: As of 6/16/23 prior advice had you 25% hedged on ’23 production and short $14 November call options for about 25 cents as a price enhancement strategy. Given the likelihood soybean yield prospects will continue declining into harvest, buy back those calls to limit loss. On the Grains: Grains are rebounding some in overnight trade as we go to press. Yesterday’s losses essentially gave back the brief “Pro Farmer Tour bounce” as if their lower yield findings won’t bear out when there’s every reason to believe they will. The forecast continues for hotter and drier than normal conditions into early September for the central U.S. and an early end to the growing season. The hurricane hitting the Florida Gulf Coast threatens heavy rains for the Delta and SE, but this time of year, that’s more a threat to harvest-ready crops than help. The war in Ukraine is heating up again, as outlined in yesterday’s PM report. The ebb and flow of war has bounced prices around like a yo-yo all year, oscillating between ideas that Ukrainian exports will be disrupted further and ideas that measures are being taken to get them out via other routes…