08/29/2023 Crop Ratings Slip, but Short of Expected Slippage

UPDATE ON SOYBEAN RECCO DAY 2: As of 6/16/23 prior advice had you 25% hedged on ’23 production and short $14 November call options for about 25 cents as a price enhancement strategy. Given the PF Tour evidence that crop yield potential has already fallen since USDA’s August crop report and likelihood weekly crop condition ratings will decline further with a hot, dry finish to the season, buy back those calls to limit loss. On the Grains: Grains are slightly weaker in overnight trade as this goes to press. Yesterday’s crop condition ratings did show slight deterioration from the week before, but not as much as expected. Only the spring wheat ratings are well below last year’s at this point. Corn and beans remain a percentage point or two ahead of last year at this time, so that’s keeping trade reaction to the reduced yield estimates from the Pro Farmer Tour in check for now. Attention is already shifting to the Sept. 12 USDA crop report to see if their yield estimates mimic Pro Farmer’s and come down as well. As for crop ratings going forward, given the forecast for a hot dry finish to the season for the most part,…