Poor export performance has been the primary drag on the grain market during its latest slide lower. Corn prices have felt the weight of several Chinese cancellations, soybean demand has stalled out against competition from Brazil, and wheat exports have been underpriced by much cheaper offers out of Russia. One could argue that the export negativity has been fully priced into the market – the recent break from the middle of April to recent lows took $1 out of nearby corn futures, almost $2 off of July soybeans, and about $1.20 away from July Chicago wheat. RJ O’Brien analyst Randy Mittelstaedt stated in his latest weekly grain export sales recap that, for corn, “it appears more likely the USDA’s just-lowered 1.775 billion bushel export project is still in need of further downward revision.” Total old-crop corn sale commitments are tracking down 36 percent from last year versus the USDA projection for them to drop 28 percent. Mexico and Japan were still shown as strong buyers of U.S. corn in the latest report. Chinese importers have been cancelling recent purchases, not making new ones, but they have also been taking in large shipments of corn bought earlier in the year….
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