05/23/2023 Grains Give Back Some of Monday Gains on Crop Progress Stats

On the Grains: Grains are giving back part of yesterday’s big gains in overnight trade. It confirms those gains were largely technical recovery from dramatic losses last week, rather than any significant shift in fundamentals. At best we can say the fundamentals are getting “less bearish” with El Nino raising risks for Southern Hemisphere production, but still premature to declare them “turning bullish.” Yesterday’s weekly export inspections weren’t bad for corn. At 1.323 billion bu., they were near the upper end of expectations that ranged from 700K to 1.425 billion. Wheat sales actually stole the show for a change. At 407,682 tonnes, they were well above even the high end of expectations that ranged from 100K to 350K. Soybean shipments were poor, coming in at the low end of expectations. It was impressive how bean traders shrugged it off; more interested in recent soybean meal sales to non-traditional customers (the Philippines and Poland) as the first evidence Argentina’s short crop may divert some business our way. Corn and beans were both helped yesterday by reports the EPA was dropping plans to give “eRINS” (renewable fuel credits) to makers of electric vehicles that would cut into the demand for the traditional…