03/10/23 The Good and Bad News about the Economy

Ahead of this morning’s monthly jobs report, it was feared that good news would be bad news for markets in the sense that investors would interpret strength in the labor data to mean more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve Bank, which pressure stock prices but support the dollar. Even though the jobs report turned out solid enough with higher than expected payroll additions, stock futures were initially able to stage a small rebound, likely because of help from a smaller than expected rise in wage inflation. Stock market strength struggled to stick, but it was helpful for the grains that the dollar broke down and interest rates eased following the report.   Bond prices were up – and yields down – after the jobs report and in follow up from nervousness over that economy that developed from news about financial trouble at the Silicon Valley Bank. The headlines were a source of bad news that ended up being good news for those betting on interest rates topping out sooner. Market-based bets on the trajectory of the federal funds rate were moving the expected target sharply lower at the end of the week.   As for the jobs report…