03/08/2023 Where Attention Will Shift Once Today’s WASDE “Dialed In”

On the Grains: Overnight markets still lean soft as we go to press, awaiting the March WASDE at 11 a.m. CST. Yesterday was a combination of pre-WASDE positioning by funds and what some call a “macro day.” That’s when outside markets (stocks, crude oil, the dollar) influence trade in Ag commodities as well. The trigger was hawkish comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that suggested the Fed might have to become more aggressive on raising interest rates to curb inflationary pressures still at work. The dollar soared more than a full point, always a sour note for Ag exports. The outside markets have calmed overnight so traders are again focused on what surprises (or lack thereof) we might see in the WASDE when the numbers come out. We’ve hashed and rehashed trade expectations for changes in U.S. and global ending stocks in recent days so there’s not much point in listing them all again. Suffice to say the trade focus will be on how much USDA cuts estimates for both corn and soybeans for Argentina as well as tweaking Brazil’s prospects for both crops. The risk is that USDA is unlikely to cut its Argentine estimates nearly as much as private forecasters…