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On the Grains:
The 2022/23 El Nino growing season in South America was nearly textbook perfect for what we have been told to expect from La Nina conditions. Drought is expected in southern Brazil and Argentina but the rest of Brazil produces well enough to compensate. That is generally been the case this year. The US has likely maxxed out combined corn/soybean growing acres while South America continues to expand acres adding significant growth to their production. With the La Nina likely fading, Argentina will be poised for a significant rebound in 2023/24 corn/soybean production. USDA has modeled optimism for a rebound in crop yields following La Nina conditions in their production forecasts for this country too this season. US weather appears to be changing with drought relief coming to the western US. The NOAA drought monitor shows that the area remaining under severe drought classification is shrinking. There is still a lack of subsoil moisture reserves in the Corn Belt but most will have enough topsoil moisture to get the new crop started. Then it will come down to timely rains.

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