02/24/23 Bear Market Confirmation in Grains This Week

This week we saw the grain markets change their attention from some of the weather issues in Argentina and begin to focus on our next season’s production.  The USDA released their 2023 Outlook showing corn acres potentially increasing to 91 million acres, up from 88.6 million acres last season.  With a projected yield of 181.5 bpa, that would give us the second largest production season on record with 15.085 billion bushels.  Much of this boost in production lies in improved yield.   The last five seasons have been at or below trendline yields, partly due to La Nina weather forces.  Meteorologists are closely watching the ENSO cycle and it suggests that La Nina is deteriorating as we head into spring, switching to ENSO neutral and potentially El Nino by late summer.   El Nino does not guarantee abundant rainfall, however, most seasons where we experienced above trend yields came following the El Nino weather pattern.  While last year was below trendline, the overall yield average held up pretty well considering the yield damage caused by drought.  This begs the question, how well can yields perform when we have more beneficial growing conditions?   The USDA is projecting a new yield record…