02/22/2023 Wide Range of Initial Trade Estimates for ’23 Acreage and Ending Stocks

On the Grains:
Overnight markets are soft, particularly in wheat, which suffered downside chart reversals yesterday. It was tugged higher initially by gains for corn and beans, but weekly export inspections were at the low end of expectations and a huge snowstorm is forecast for northern and central Plains bringing lousy travel conditions but welcome moisture. HRW is down the most. Corn export inspections were so-so, falling about midway in the range of expectations.

Soybean inspections were strong again.  At 1.58 million tonnes, they neared the higher end of expectations and widened the lead over last year to 3.5% vs. USDA’s forecast for them to end up 8% below last year. The Monday night rally in beans sputtered a bit in early trade yesterday, but then “got legs” and closed at new contract highs for the March. (We detail in our weekly Brazilian operations update below how the losses in RGDS have taken the bloom off Brazil’s otherwise record crop.) The other positive sign was that all the veg oil markets moved higher yesterday, in sync with gains in soybean meal instead of counter to them via spread unwinding.